Premier League best bets: Fulham vs. Crystal Palace, Aston Villa vs. Chelsea and more

Fulham vs. Crystal Palace

Saturday, April 27, 10 a.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

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Dabbundo: Crystal Palace have won three consecutive league matches against Liverpool, West Ham and Newcastle and the Eagles are flying into the Premier League finish line now that both Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are both fit at the same time. Palace have averaged 1.7 xG per match when both players are fit this season, even though it’s a small sample of matches where that has actually been the case. The most impressive element of Palace under new manager Oliver Glasner is that the Eagles have won in different ways.

Crystal Palace's season long numbers are a bit deflated compared to their true talent because of those key injuries. Fulham have worse underlying defensive metrics as a team than Palace this year but have made up for it by creating a lot more chances via crossing.

The overall raw xG difference between these two teams suggests there is little to separate them. With not much on the line for either club as we enter the final few matches of the season, Palace with their new manager and fit star players shouldn’t be a full half goal underdog on the road. I have this line closer to Fulham -0.25 and thus would bet Palace +0.5 at -125 or better.

Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-115 via ESPN BET)

Wolves vs. Luton Town

Saturday, April 27, 10 a.m. ET, USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: There is a lot of must win tax baked into this line in favor of Luton Town.

The Hatters need three points here to get out of the relegation zone, but this is still the worst defense in the Premier League and it is still dealing with a lot of injuries across their backline. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Luton are allowing 2.46 xG per 90 minutes, which is by far the most in the league. The reason for that is because their style of play.

Rob Edwards identified a long time ago that Luton Town were not effective sitting in a low zonal defensive block. Teams were playing through the middle of the pitch with ease because they weren't well drilled and didn't have any elite ball stoppers in their midfield. So, he's now switched them to primarily a high pressing man to man type of system, which has helped them offensively to get better transition opportunities when they force high turnovers, but decent build up teams have ripped them to shreds.

Luton Town's injury situation hasn't gotten better over the past few weeks. Their best center back Mengi was able to return against Brentford, but as it currently stands, they are only going to have two available center backs for this match.

Wolves struggled against Bournemouth's high press on Wednesday, but Bournemouth do more a hybrid system and are one of the better pressing teams in the Premier League, Luton are not even close to that. Wolves also had some success building through the middle of the pitch against Arsenal, but they didn't have any attackers available, so they were unable to create much in the final third.

The way Luton Town creates all of their chances is by getting the ball out wide and swinging in cross or off of set pieces. Wolves are allowing the lowest percentage of crosses into their penalty area and have the lowest xG per corner allowed in the Premier League.

The injury situation for Wolves is not as bad as it seems either. Hee Chan Hwang and Matheus Cunha both played against Bournemouth on Wednesday and outside of Neto, the rest of the team is healthy. Cunha being back makes a massive difference against teams like Luton Town who play man to man because of his ability as a ball carrier and making runs off the last line of defense. He's up to a 0.50 xG + xA per 90 minutes after a slow start to the season and will be a key for Wolves in this matchup.

I have Wolves projected at -145, so I like the value on them at +100.

Picks: Wolves ML (+100 via Caesars)

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea

Saturday, April 27, 3 p.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

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Dabbundo: Aston Villa yet again conceded more than 1.5 total expected goals in the 3-1 win against Bournemouth, which extends the streak to 11 consecutive league matches in which the defense has allowed at least that much xG. It's been part of broader defensive issues for Emery's team that have only gotten worse in the second half of the season.

Villa's three main attacking players have all been super productive and are currently fit and firing for the club. Ollie Watkins (0.71 xG + xA per 90), Moussa Diaby (0.56) and Leon Bailey (0.69) all continue to provide clear top six level attacking production.
Nicolas Jackson's poor finishing run aside, Chelsea's attack has largely been cooking in the second half of the season. Cole Palmer missed Tuesday's trip to Arsenal through illness but he should be back on Saturday for this match. Palmer's goal total is clearly inflated by penalties, but the young forward is still producing an excellent 0.70 xG + xA per 90 even after removing penalties from the sample entirely.

These two teams might be in the top eight in underlying metrics and points amassed this season, but it's not because of either team's defense. Villa and Chelsea have different defensive issues, but they end up around the same results wise. Neither team is able to prevent opponents from creating 1.5-2.0 xG consistently, and I have no reason to expect this match to be all that different.

I'd bet over 3.5 at +100 or better and project 3.6 goals in total.

Pick: Over 3.5 (+108 via BetRivers)

Bournemouth vs. Brighton

Sunday, April 28, 8 a.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Brighton tried to man mark Manchester City all over the pitch on Thursday, which blew up in their face in the form a 4-0 beat down.

Roberto De Zerbi is one of the most interesting and influential tactical managers in the world, but sometimes his brave and aggressive tactics simply do not work against elite competition. This is one of those matches where they are going to set up in possession is going to play right into Bournemouth's hands.

Bournemouth have improved because their hybrid high press is working. The way Bournemouth’s press works is they try to go man to man by pinning their opponents to one side of the pitch to force the turnover or force their opponents to switch the play to the other side of the pitch. Some teams have been able to exploit this by switching the play to the other side of the pitch, but Brighton are not a team that does that. De Zerbi is obsessed with controlling the middle of the pitch and getting numerical advantages in the first and second phase of build up to play short combination passes through the opponent's press.

What has been happening recently is they are making far too many mistakes in build up, which is leading to easy transition opportunities for their opponents, which is essentially why Bournemouth have been so successful. Plus, Brighton are going to be without their most influential play through those first two phases of build up in Billy Gilmour.

With teams not only being able to figure out De Zerbi and because of the number of injuries Brighton have had to their attack, they are really struggling to create chances. Over their last six Premier League matches, Brighton have only created 3.9 xG and has failed to create a big scoring chance.

Even though these two teams are right next to each other in the table, Bournemouth have been the significantly better team in 2024 putting up a +4.5 xGD, while Brighton are at -4.4.

I have Bournemouth projected at +111, so I like the value on the Cherries at home at +130.

Picks:Bournemouth ML (+130 via BetMGM)